Is Hot Weather Good for the UK Economy?

I’ve been living in the UK coming up to 5 years now, and I’ve learned a thing or two about the British love/hate relationship with the sun.

As an Australian, generally the first reaction I get when I meet someone new is something along the lines of, “Why that fuck have you moved here then, for the weather?” 

That’s a totally understandable question in the middle of February, when Aussies are on the beach in their budgie smugglers and we’re watching the sunset while we eat our lunch. 

But I’ve noticed something. In this country we treat the sun like a crazy ex. When they’re not around, we pine for them. We think about all the good times we had, all the fun, all the laughs. We wish they’d come back. We imagine what it would be like to have them back in our lives.

And then, finally, after a winter that feels like an eternity, the ex comes waltzes back into our lives. At first, it’s amazing. The warmth, the good times and the happiness comes flooding back. We wonder how we ever survived without them.

Then, very fuckin’ quickly, we realise. It’s too much. We’re not equipped to deal with this. We’ve not got the tools, the resilience or the infrastructure to cope with blazing heat. It’s too hot, and we want out of the kitchen.

As an expat, it’s a position I’ve come to wholeheartedly agree with. 

Right now, sitting in my boxer shorts, facing the fan and looking like a Peking Duck hanging in a shop window, I want the crazy ex out of my house.

What About the Money?

“Uh, ok Jason, that’s nice, what about the economy.” Right, yeh, back on track. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) actually looked into this back in 2018, and they found that the warm weather in the second quarter of the year had a notable positive impact on the economy over the cold, wet, dark and shitty first quarter.

But, other studies have found that at a certain point, it just gets too bloody hot and that trend reverses.

Researchers at Stanford University have suggested that economic growth per person peaks with an annual average temperature of 13 degrees celsius, with anything above that making us less productive. For comparison, the UK’s average annual temp is around 9 degrees. 

Now keep in mind that this is an annual average, which includes winter, summer, nighttime and daytime etc. but it means that we’re likely to be less productive during a heatwave.

So yes, warm weather is good for the UK economy, but a heatwave probably isn’t.

Obviously, individual industries can fare better or worse.

Retail

Apparently we all like to shop when the weather heats up. Whether it’s paddling pools, a new BBQ, a few cold Corona’s or some aloe vera for the “tan”, there are definitely a few extra trips to the Big Tesco when the mercury starts to rise. 

In that study from the ONS, they found that one of the biggest contributors to economic growth in warmer weather came from the retail sector.

This week has been no exception, with Sainsbury’s sale of ice creams up 400% and burgers up 62%. I believe it. I was at Sainsbury's this morning and the seasonal section looked like a set from The Walking Dead.

Hospitality

We all know that pub landlords love a bit of sunshine. We’re all gagging for a few pints in a beer garden by the time summer rolls around, and statistics show that pubs make absolute bank when there’s a weekend of hot weather.

The jury’s out on whether it’s a net positive overall though, with some industry analysts suggesting that people just change their choice of venue, rather than their choice of activity. 

Agriculture

The heat is a right pain in the ass for farmers. They need to work hard at keeping their crops and their animals alive during a heatwave, which can cost them a lot of money. 

The dairy industry in particular isn’t loving the heat, as milk sales are down compared to the same week last year. That’s not surprising.

Interestingly, none of the big players in the dairy industry are publicly listed in the UK. Most are either privately owned, operate as a farmers co-operative or are owned by a foreign company listed on an overseas exchange.

Office Work

Office workers in general seem to be hitting up the bosses air con, with average office occupancy up 12.3% compared to June. Last Monday, which also hit low 30’s around the country, recorded the busiest Monday in offices so far this year, according to research from Freespace.

Does being in the office mean we’re more productive or less? Who bloody knows. There are a million studies that ‘prove’ both sides of the argument.